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In years to come, Richard Heinberg suggests, we may mark July 11, 2008, as the day peak oil passed from future possibility to present reality. Welcome to peak oil, one year in. Is it as you expected?

Peak Oil Day

MuseLetter 207 / July 2009 by Richard Heinberg

[...] Maybe it’s a stretch to say that the production peak occurred at one identifiable moment, but attributing it to the day oil prices reached their high-water mark may be a useful way of fixing the event in our minds. So I suggest that we remember July 11, 2008 as Peak Oil Day.

We are now approaching the first-year anniversary of Peak Oil Day. Where are we now? The global economy is in tatters, yet oil prices have recovered somewhat (they’re now about half what they were in July 2008). World energy consumption is down, world trade is down, the airline industry is shrinking, and most of the world’s automakers are on life support.

It is too late to prepare for Peak Oil–a year too late, in fact. Now the name of the game is adaptation. We are in an entirely new economic environment, in which old assumptions about the inevitability of perpetual growth, and the usefulness of leveraging investments based on expectations of future growth, are crashing in flames. Even if economic activity picks up somewhat, this will occur in the context of an economy significantly smaller than the one that existed in July 2008, and energy scarcity will quickly cause most green shoots to wither. [...]

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By Dave Oswald Mitchell
Briarpatch Magazine
December 2008

“You think there’s not a lot goin’ on
Look closer baby you’re so wrong.”
- Northey Valenzuela, Corner Gas theme song

If Chicken Little had gotten her wings on Colonel Sanders’ business plan back in 1955, she would probably have felt the same way Saskatchewan environmentalists did when they read Fortune Magazine’s chops-licking article about their province last month:

“Cold, landlocked, and boasting as its largest metropolis the city of Saskatoon, Saskatchewan may not be top of mind for most Americans. But the Canadian province is one of the richest spots in the world when it comes to natural resources. It’s the world’s largest producer of uranium. It’s the biggest producer of the fertilizer potash (current price: $1,000 a ton, up from $300 this time last year). It is the world’s largest exporter of green lentils and chickpeas. And it’s home to enormous supplies of oil and gas: The U.S. buys more oil from Saskatchewan than it does from Kuwait. No wonder the CEO of one Fortune 500 company - Jim Prokopanko of Mosaic, which has a potash mine near the town of Esterhazy - describes the prairie province as ‘the next sovereign wealth fund.’” (Jon Birger, “Where Business is Booming: Saskatchewan has 10,000 job openings. Bring your parka,” November 4, 2008)

What has the Fortunistas drooling (and the environmentalists sweating) is not just the province’s wealth, but its goofy government’s inexplicable determination, come good times or bad, to give that wealth away to any and all comers for next to nothing. As Fortune reports, Saskatchewan’s fledgling conservative premier Brad Wall (”a glib and personable 42-year-old who’s as comfortable talking NFL football as he is quoting Thomas Friedman”) addressed an energy conference in New York in the spring where he “promised not to raise oil royalties [from their current rock-bottom levels], which won him a standing ovation from the bankers in the crowd.”

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By Erin Weir
Briarpatch Magazine
December 2008

In recent years, progressive commentators have bemoaned the extent to which skyrocketing commodity prices locked Canada’s economy into the environmentally and economically unsustainable extraction of non-renewable resources. Rising commodity prices drove up energy costs and the U.S. exchange rate, to the detriment of Canada’s manufacturing and tradable services sectors. Certainly, the recent crash of commodity prices underscores the value of developing a more diverse mix of industries, but commodity prices remain high by historical standards: the Bank of Canada’s Commodity Price Index was at the same level in October 2008 as its annual average for 2007. Since most commodities are Crown-owned, relatively high prices provide an opportunity to raise the revenues needed to finance the public programs advocated by progressives. In particular, collecting appropriate revenues from the depletion of non-renewable resources could finance the investments in conservation and renewable energy needed to build an environmentally sustainable society.

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“We are moving into a period of bewilderment, a curious moment in which people find light in the midst of despair, and vertigo at the summit of their hopes. It is a religious moment also, and here is the danger. People will want to obey the voice of Authority, and many strange constructs of just what Authority is will arise in every mind. . . . The public yearning for Order will invite many stubborn uncompromising persons to impose it.”

Leonard Cohen, Book of Longing

What happens when large numbers of people give up on the paradigm of “progress” — the idea that each generation will invariably live in greater material comfort and prosperity than the generation before?

On a recent bus trip through the plaque-clogged heart of Middle America, that is the question I kept returning to. It probably didn’t help that I was reading peak oil theorist Dmitry Orlov’s new book, Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects, which, I must say, made for a fascinating travel companion through the flooded corn fields of Nebraska and across the suburban sprawl and urban wasteland of Tulsa, Oklahoma. I crossed back into Canada with both a new sense of admiration and respect for the almost unnervingly friendly Americans I’d met, but also with a sinking sense that the country’s poorly designed urban infrastructure, mind-numbingly superficial and deceptive media and blind attachment to private solutions to public problems leave them woefully unprepared for a lower-energy future. Back home in Canada now, I can’t really say that we’re significantly better prepared.

In response to a recent flurry of bleak economic and environmental reports from almost every direction, the public mood on both sides of the border seems to be darkening. From the proliferation of books like The Long Emergency and The Upside of Down to blogs like The Automatic Earth and Casaubon’s Book, from the widening recognition that mitigating climate change will require much more than just changing our light bulbs to the growing realization that peak oil will shake our economy to its very foundation, from the still-unfolding credit crisis we explored in our May 2008 issue to the emerging global food crisis we foretold in our February 2007 issue, many people’s sense of what the future holds in store for them is increasingly clouded by uncertainty and doubt.

For the first time in living memory, young middle-class Canadians can’t reasonably expect to lead healthier, wealthier lives than our parents led. Our grandchildren’s lives may more closely resemble the lives of our great-grandparents than of our baby-boomer parents. That’s a bitter pill for a generation raised in overmediated, overmedicated comfort to swallow, and it’s hard to know how we will react.

What happens when our swollen sense of entitlement crashes headlong into our dangerous lack of preparation for any future that doesn’t look more or less like the present? Will people lash out in anger? Embrace xenophobia and false populism? Turn to fundamentalist religions or doomsday cults or conspiracy theories? Or will a loss of faith in industrial capitalism’s ability to bring us happiness and provide for our needs open up new and healthier possibilities for alternate economic and social formations? Will we rediscover simpler pleasures and more modest ambitions, rooted in our own neighbourhoods and communities?

Of course, prognostications on a deeply uncertain future can’t be boiled down to a simple question of glass-half-empty versus glass-half-full pronouncements. Facing the enormity of the challenges before us requires that we familiarize ourselves with a lot of new information that can’t be reduced to simply “good” or “bad” news. Indeed, to dwell exclusively on either will only leave us dangerously unprepared to respond appropriately to a rapidly changing situation.

The point, I suppose, is to recognize that the massive shift we face has great potential for new opportunities and threats of every sort, and that in some ways the best we can hope for is to face these changes proactively, with grace, integrity and a sense of humour, and with as many allies as we can muster. It’s a truly fascinating time to be alive-that’s one thing, at least, for which we can be thankful.

This issue of Briarpatch has no overarching theme, but whether it’s Sadiqa Khan’s essay on confronting racist assumptions in everyday conversation, Ava McDougall’s account of the fight to drive white supremacists out of urban Alberta, or Derrick Jensen’s thoughts on the liberatory potential of despair, what unites many of the contributions to this issue is an openhearted search for the grace required to face the challenges before us.

As always, we welcome your thoughts on what you read in Briarpatch. If you’re thinking of writing us a letter, please do-we always love to hear from our readers.

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By Lori Waller
Briarpatch Magazine
June/July 2008

Fort Chipewyan, a tiny northern Alberta hamlet perched on the shores of Lake Athabasca, is historically notable as the location of the province’s oldest European settlement, a trading post opened by the Hudson’s Bay Company in 1788.

Mention Fort Chipewyan today, though, and what’s likely to come to mind for most Albertans is not the 18th century fur trade, but cancer.

The community’s residents, mostly indigenous Cree, Dene (Chipewyan) and Métis, are dying in alarming numbers from a variety of cancers and autoimmune disorders such as lupus and Graves’ disease. The situation was first exposed in 2006 when the town’s doctor, John O’Connor, went public with his findings that in this small community of 1,000, he had diagnosed at least three cases of a rare bile duct cancer that normally afflicts only one out of 100,000 Canadians.

Before going to the media, O’Connor had been trying for two years to convince the provincial authorities that something was very wrong in Fort Chipewyan. To this day, the province has taken little action, dismissing O’Connor’s concerns with a brief statistical report that found the rate of cancer in the hamlet, although 30 per cent higher than the rate for Alberta as a whole, was not statistically significant enough to be considered “elevated.” The report was heavily criticized by academics such as ecologist Kevin P. Timoney for its questionable statistical methodology and lack of peer review.

Many suspect that Fort Chipewyan’s health problems have something to do with the fact that it sits less than 200 kilometres downriver from the biggest industrial project on Earth-the wringing of oil from Alberta’s tar sands. It’s an endeavour that threatens to devastate not only the people of Fort Chipewyan, but dozens of indigenous communities throughout northern Alberta-and perhaps Canada’s entire Northwest.

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By Daniel Tencer
MediaScout

An easily overlooked article, buried in today’s La Presse and the Star, suggests that the human race came within a whisker of extinction seventy thousand years ago, when the homo sapiens population may have dropped to as few as two thousand people. That should give us pause for thought as we look at today’s news cycle, which is, almost without exception, focused on the apparently sudden arrival of serious problems with our supply of two basic necessities: food and energy. CIBC economist Jeff Rubin is all over last night’s broadcasts and today’s papers, announcing that we can expect a serious shock at the pumps: By this summer, Rubin says, we’ll be paying $1.40 per litre of gas, and that will rise to $2.25 per litre over the next several years, bringing the cost of an average tank of gas to around $100. And, in a not unrelated story, Canadians can soon expect to pay considerably more for basic foodstuffs as well, as grain prices (and therefore, by extension, meat prices) soar over the next few years. The two issues come down to a basic problem that is at the heart of all economics, but one that we, in our age of affluence and seemingly endless economic growth, have mostly forgotten about: scarcity. As developing nations become wealthier, the demand for food and energy rises, while the supply remains stagnant. That is what is happening, and the result appears to be a return to an us-or-them, zero-sum mentality. As Rubin told The National last night: “For every new driver who gets on the road in India or China or Russia, someone’s got to get off the road in [our] part of the world.”

In all fairness, we could have seen this coming. Economists and academics have been warning us for years that oil supplies are peaking, and will begin to decline, and that increasing demand for food will put pressure on the planet’s ability to sustain the human race. The predictions of social unrest and war arising from the problem of scarcity continue to be ignored, even as food riots break out in poor countries and the US continues to fight a war in the middle of the world’s largest oil pool. What is conspicuously absent from the Big Seven’s coverage of this issue today is any discussion as to how to solve these problems. There are few questions posed on how to increase food production, no discussion of alternative energy sources. Yet it is becoming increasingly obvious that, if we want to maintain our standard of living, then finding alternatives to fossil fuels and reforming the creaky, at times senseless structure of global agricultural trade can no longer be treated as political footballs to be accepted or rejected-they have to be seen, quite literally, as matters of survival. If we fail to rise to the challenge, then nature itself will no doubt provide a draconian solution. As an example, take another lesson from pre-history in today’s news cycle, an item in The National (not available online) and the Star regarding the fate of the king of the dinosaurs, the tyrannosaurus rex. New genetic evidence suggests that, when conditions became unfavourable for the enormous creature, the t-rex evolved into something more manageable-the everyday barnyard chicken, and the ostrich, to be precise. If we fail to address the problems facing us now, nature could reduce us, too, to a species that is less demanding.

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This is the logical outcome of using fossil fuel inputs to grow food, and then turning that food into fuel.

As Evans-Pritchard points out, “energy and food have ‘converged’ in price and can increasingly be switched from one use to another,” which is just a polite way of saying that, in a time of scarcity, rich people’s ability to pay for fuel will quickly outstrip poor people’s ability to pay for food.

Why the price of ‘peak oil’ is famine

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
The London Telegraph
February 9, 2008

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New Report Calls for Canada to Set Up Strategic Petroleum Reserves

EDMONTON - ­Canada is currently the most vulnerable country in the industrial world to short-term oil supply crises, and we need to establish strategic petroleum reserves to remedy the problem. This is the key finding of a report released today by Alberta’s Parkland Institute in conjunction with the Polaris Institute.

Freezing in the Dark: Why Canada Needs Strategic Petroleum Reserves points out the precariousness of current global oil supplies, especially given current tensions in the Middle East, and fact that Canada imports close to 1 million barrels of oil per day to supply the needs of central and eastern provinces.

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An open letter to the leaders of the New Democratic, Sask and Liberal Parties of Saskatchewan

There is something surreal about this election, for none of you has had to fundamentally justify your pronuclear policies. Saskatchewan is now the major front-end uranium supplier of the global nuclear system, and this issue demands public scrutiny.

Last year Premier Calvert travelled to France to get support from Areva to build a uranium refinery here. Saskatchewan exports all its uranium, and some argue a refinery would add value before export, and strengthen the provincial economy. Meanwhile, Calvert is on record as opposing nuclear power here, and in this election has highlighted a commitment to expand non-polluting renewable energy use at home. What’s good for the goose (us) is, apparently, not good for the gander (those who import uranium from us).

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Many readers will already be familiar with the concept of peak oil — the observation that, over time, oil-producing regions reach a maximum rate of extraction, after which oil production begins to enter a terminal decline. North American oil production peaked in 1985; British oil production peaked in 1999. The question of when global oil production will peak is a subject of fierce debate.

But according to a study just released by the German-based Energy Watch Group, world oil production already reached its peak in 2006, and is projected to decline at an alarming rate of about 7% in the years to come. They predict that global oil production will have fallen by half as soon as 2030.

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