Have we already hit peak oil?

Many readers will already be familiar with the concept of peak oil — the observation that, over time, oil-producing regions reach a maximum rate of extraction, after which oil production begins to enter a terminal decline. North American oil production peaked in 1985; British oil production peaked in 1999. The question of when global oil production will peak is a subject of fierce debate.

But according to a study just released by the German-based Energy Watch Group, world oil production already reached its peak in 2006, and is projected to decline at an alarming rate of about 7% in the years to come. They predict that global oil production will have fallen by half as soon as 2030.

One would think that these findings would be big news, and a source of intense debate and concerted action. The only mainstream sources to have reported the findings so far, however, are the Manchester Guardian and CNN (though CNN mistakenly puts the decline at 3% and quotes a market analyst who dismisses the government-commissioned report as “scaremongering.”

Here is the Guardian story’s lead:

Steep decline in oil production brings risk of war and unrest, says new study

• Output peaked in 2006 and will fall 7% a year

• Decline in gas, coal and uranium also predicted

Ashley Seager

Monday October 22, 2007

The Guardian

World oil production has already peaked and will fall by half as soon as 2030, according to a report which also warns that extreme shortages of fossil fuels will lead to wars and social breakdown.

The German-based Energy Watch Group will release its study in London today saying that global oil production peaked in 2006 - much earlier than most experts had expected. The report, which predicts that production will now fall by 7% a year, comes after oil prices set new records almost every day last week, on Friday hitting more than $90 (44 Pounds) a barrel.

FULL ARTICLE

Read the Energy Watch Group report here.

For more information on peak oil, check out Energy Bulletin’s peak-oil primer.