The case for an informal coalition

Canadians will have to be exceptionally alert when approaching the next election. There is such a strong desire to rid the country of the arrogant and condescending Stephen Harper that people may not think past this short-term goal.

By Murray Dobbin
TheTyee.ca
December 18, 2006

The Tyee debate about who to vote for in the next election is missing an important piece of the puzzle: the nature of political power.

Far too often the analysis of elections and politics in general focuses almost exclusively on who “wins’ formal power — that is, the biggest number of seats and the right to form a government. This kind of limited assessment leads to putting all the analytical eggs in one basket by asking which leader is (in the case of those who want to defeat Stephen Harper) the best — the most progressive, the most trustworthy, the most charismatic, the most visionary.

But it is always much more complicated than that because the actual exercise of power is extremely complex, involving a usually entrenched bureaucracy that can facilitate or hobble any particular initiative and divisions within the governing party.

It also involves the key constituencies of power that each party has historically relied upon.

Lastly, it involves the major media players — as important in the exercise of power, and the restraints on it, as either politicians or bureaucrats.

Shoot for a Liberal minority

What does this mean for advocates for social justice and for environmentalists in the next election?

It means, realistically, doing everything they can to elect a minority Liberal government, with the NDP holding a real balance of power — in effect, an informal coalition.

Unfortunately, at this point, very close to the election in question, it seems unlikely that voters will implement such a strategic approach or even be given the opportunity.

There are two related reasons for this. First, Stephane Dion looks pretty good to a lot of people and they will vote Liberal, imagining a majority government that actually reflects Dion’s stated commitment to social justice and to environmental sustainability.

The second reason is that — unless it does an about face — the NDP seems locked into a strategy of targeting Dion as much as Harper. Twice before when the NDP has done this, Canada got very Conservative governments: that of Brian Mulroney and last January when we got Stephen Harper.

New leader, new landscape

The Liberals, especially when out of power, always run from the left and then govern from the right. Paul Martin co-authored the infamous Liberal Red Book for the 1993 election. It was one of the most progressive political documents ever written for a Canadian election and was used extensively throughout the campaign. It also turned out to be a book of outright lies. Martin and Chr