The Martin Reign: Act I, Scene 2

Wherein the king entices his enemies into the Valley of Unwanted Elections and springs a most vicious Liberal ambush…

by John Conway
prairie dog

Paul Martin set the trap, and Harper and Layton sprung it on themselves. (Duceppe doesn’t really care very much, since he is set to sweep Quebec no matter when the election occurs.) Martin wanted an election. He didn’t want to wait until 30 days after the final Gomery report, as he promised. The first Gomery hit sank the Liberals briefly in the polls, but they quickly recovered. They might not have recovered so quickly after the second hit, especially if the economy begins to sag. With current poll results comparable to the last election, with the economy doing very well, and with a large surplus allowing a blizzard of spending announcements, Liberals were in fact very eager to go now. Harper and Layton gave them what they wanted. Dumb, very dumb.

And try as they might, Harper and Layton have not been able to blame the Liberals for the unwanted election. It was, after all, combined Opposition support for a non-confidence motion that brought the government down. No amount of spinning and dipsy-doodling can change that fundamental fact.

The media are all agog about the magical “time for a change” factor. According to the polls, 54 percent of Canadians say it is time for a change. Well, in the last election 57 percent said it was time for a change and we got a Liberal minority government. That’s why the Liberals are not worried about the alleged “time for a change” factor - it is smaller than last time and the voters still don’t trust Harper enough to make him prime minister. The Liberals are counting on the “fear of Harper’s right-wing agenda” to trump any “time for a change” yearnings.

And look what Harper did. On Day One he promised a free vote in the House of Commons to rescind the same sex marriage law. If the law is rescinded, Harper promises, those already in lawful same sex marriages will not have them annulled. But no new same sex marriages will be lawful. What lunacy! And this man wants to be prime minister. First, Harper would have to use the notwithstanding clause to rescind the law, since the courts have already ruled such a ban is a Charter violation. Then we will have the ridiculous anomaly of an island of legal same sex marriages - enjoying all the rights, benefits and privileges of legal marriage - existing in a sea of traditional heterosexual marriages with a bunch of outcast, unlawful same sex partnerships crying out for justice. Talk about intolerance masking as stupidity (or is it stupidity masking as intolerance?).

Then on Day Two Harper revealed he didn’t understand the Canadian constitution by promising a special prosecutor to go after the crooks in government. Stephen, we are not part of the U.S. quite yet, despite your (yes, I’ll say it) “secret agenda” to lead us into that warm embrace. The criminal law is a federal responsibility, but its administration is provincial (go back to first year political science, Stephen).

This is why Harper is so endearing. He is an honest and committed right-wing, pro-American ideologue, a true believer with deep religious convictions. Inevitably, it seems, he blurts out what he really believes from time to time (despite the best efforts of his handlers). It is a sad day for Canadian politics when we have to admit that the Liberal sleaze factory is counting on Harper’s honesty about his right-wing convictions to help Paul Martin cling to power.

Paul Martin, on the other hand, is the Big Sleaze of Canadian politics. He accused Harper, Layton and Duceppe of being driven by ambition, the naked lust for power (I think he called it “naked ambition.”) This is a rather bizarre smear from the man who spent ten years lusting after his leader’s job, stabbing him in the back, trying to orchestrate ouster after ouster, and finally succeeding in pushing him from office. Martin is the epitome of power lust, with a dangerous sense of power entitlement.

For Canadians it is a tough choice. Do you elect a dedicated right-winger like Harper, and suffer from his principled right-wing rampage should he win, including his zealous implementation of rule by big business? Or do you stay with the Big Sleaze who will - as Liberals have from time immemorial - govern more or less opportunistically (if the polls go right, the Liberals go right; if the polls go left, the Liberals go left), while deftly carrying out instructions from big business with aplomb and a smile?

The NDP’s Smilin’ Jack Layton was in a tough spot. Tory charges of propping up the Liberals were hurting, and even many in his own party were becoming uncomfortable with the situation. Layton’s problem is that the NDP is doing well in the polls - 20 percent - but in a hard fought, polarized campaign between the Liberals and the Tories, the NDP vote is at risk. The Liberals, while attacking Harper’s right-wing agenda, will again squeeze left during the campaign, hoping to snap up the soft NDP vote, especially in Ontario and B.C. If soft NDP voters become frightened enough of a Harper victory, they will bolt in large numbers to the Liberals to stop Harper. So Jack’s smile is a little tight, as deep worry lines play on his face.

Meanwhile, George Bush’s personal emissary to Canada, former U.S. ambassador Paul Cellucci is again intruding into Canadian politics, warning Canadian politicians not to “kick the hell out of the president,” particularly fingering the Liberals for past sins. The message is clear: George Bush wants Canadians to vote Harper. Big mistake, Paul, you just helped guarantee a Liberal victory.

The outcome, at this point, is pretty much a foregone conclusion: another Liberal minority government. The big issue is will the NDP pick up enough seats to give the Liberals a secure survival edge in the House of Commons? If so, then the NDP will squeeze a lot more out of the Liberals than they have been able to so far. And the NDP will have the power to decide when the next election will be….more or less.

Of course, in elections we know that shit happens. Martin could stumble badly. Harper’s handlers might be able to keep him from being too honest. Ralph Klein might keep his big mouth shut. Harper just might accidentally win the largest bloc of seats and form a minority government.

Happily, though, there is one thing we can count on. After the election one or the other of Harper or Martin will be gone. And that is something to look forward to (or maybe not, the replacement might be worse).

Conway is a University of Regina political sociologist and the author of The West: The History of a Region in Confederation.